The Shelves Are Full. The Ledger Is Fuller.

Growth came in at 1.5% while consumption ran at 3.4%. Someone is doing the lifting and it is not the government, which printed minus 1%. Investment at 2.7% helps, but imports grew 12.5% against exports at 4.5%, so a good slice of that consumption is arriving on ships. Don says the consumer has never been stronger. Franc says this is the regime change he has been detecting since his first espresso.

Schad already drew a line under imports and is looking for the reason second. Underneath it all, the Treasury owes 40.08T and pays an average of 3.45% on it, bills running 3.76%, the long bond 4.73% against a short rate of 3.9%. Employment sits at 158.86M earning 37.6 an hour over 34.3 hours. Shelter prices reached 429.1. Medical prices reached 594.4. Nobody at the desk has a question about any of that.